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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genk and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk and Cercle Brugge finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.10 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.53 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.05 / defence 1.25 against Cercle Brugge attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 27% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 47%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights