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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Dender 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Dender 0-1 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.02 xG and Standard Liege 1.41 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.82 / defence 1.48 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 27% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 45%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 57%, Standard Liege 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Standard Liege's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 0.98 PPG, Standard Liege 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights