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Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Dender 1-4 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.95 xG and St. Truiden 2.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against St. Truiden attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 16% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 63%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 52%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights