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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dender run riot with a 5-0 hammering of OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dender beat OH Leuven 5-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Conference League Play-off Group - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.98 xG and OH Leuven 0.93 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OH Leuven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.65 / defence 1.07 against OH Leuven attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 33% | Draw 36% | OH Leuven 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 55%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 1.40 PPG, OH Leuven 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights