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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Dender 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Dender 0-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.95 xG and Genk 1.46 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 22% | Draw 32% | Genk 46%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Genk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Genk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 1.48 PPG, Genk 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights