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Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dender beat Charleroi 2-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.99 xG and Charleroi 1.28 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.63 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights