Charleroi 1-2 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Standard Liege at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Standard Liege stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Standard Liege away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Standard Liege are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Charleroi, 2 for Standard Liege and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Jan 2026, ended Charleroi 2–0 Standard Liege — a Charleroi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus Standard Liege 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 46% | Standard Liege 35%). Note also that Standard Liege surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Charleroi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.15 xG and Standard Liege 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.994 / defence 1.156 | Standard Liege attack 0.845 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.03 | Draw 3.66 | Standard Liege 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 60% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 33 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charleroi 1.15 / Standard Liege 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.994 / def 1.156 | Standard Liege attack 0.845 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Standard Liege xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 2 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 33) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 33% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.99) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.66
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.44
1.29
Standard Liege xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.29 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 27W 17D 28L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 27L across 72 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.36 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 16W 9D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.81 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 27W 17D 28L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 22W 23D 27L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.63 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Standard Liege 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 37% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Standard Liege in 31%; Standard Liege in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Standard Liege matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 29% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 37% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Charleroi's recent matches and 60% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.15 xG and Standard Liege 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Standard Liege attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Standard Liege 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.36 PPG, Standard Liege 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.