🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.15 xG and Standard Liege 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Standard Liege attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Standard Liege 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Standard Liege's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.36 PPG, Standard Liege 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights