Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus RAAL La Louvière in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 1.80 PPG lead over RAAL La Louvière (2.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RAAL La Louvière goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus RAAL La Louvière 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | RAAL La Louvière 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.63 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.282 / defence 1.089 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.720 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. RAAL La Louvière bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 38 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 72% | Draw 16% | RAAL La Louvière 12%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | RAAL La Louvière 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 60% | RAAL La Louvière 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 72% | Draw 16% | RAAL La Louvière 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 59% | xG Charleroi 2.63 / RAAL La Louvière 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.282 / def 1.089 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.720 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.02
RAAL La Louvière xG
59%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 72% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 1 | RAAL La Louvière 1W.
What form are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.28x the league average against RAAL La Louvière's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.72x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
72%
1.39
16%
6.29
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.65
1.02
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
7%
13.87
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
1%
112.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.02 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 21W 6D 17L from 44 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RAAL La Louvière, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 22L across 44 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RAAL La Louvière heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RAAL La Louvière's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 0.98 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 6D 17L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 8W 14D 22L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Charleroi's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.41 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Charleroi or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
1
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
From 2 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Charleroi 0-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, RAAL La Louvière 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charleroi) and 64% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Charleroi's games and 59% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Charleroi's matches and 64% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.