Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 37%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Charleroi's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, OH Leuven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Charleroi, 3 for OH Leuven and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus OH Leuven 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 40% | OH Leuven 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.005 / defence 1.036 | OH Leuven attack 0.968 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.441. Data: 30 Charleroi games / 30 OH Leuven games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | OH Leuven 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Charleroi 1.41 / OH Leuven 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.005 / def 1.036 | OH Leuven attack 0.968 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.45
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 3 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 35% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Record (9 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 4 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.00x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.97x) against Charleroi's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.63
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.85
1.45
OH Leuven xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.45 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 9D 17L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. Charleroi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OH Leuven's form line: 10W 10D 20L from 40 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. OH Leuven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Charleroi against 1.00 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.02 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Pre-Season
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.20 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 60%, OH Leuven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charleroi) and 45% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Charleroi's games and 50% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 45% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat OH Leuven 3-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.45 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 35% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 37%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 40%, OH Leuven 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.27 PPG, OH Leuven 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.