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Prediction vindicated as KVC Westerlo edge out Charleroi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 38, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.12 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | KVC Westerlo 42%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, KVC Westerlo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights