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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over KVC Westerlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.59 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.44 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KVC Westerlo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.28 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | KVC Westerlo 34%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, KVC Westerlo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights