Charleroi 2-0 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charleroi at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees KVC Westerlo travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
KVC Westerlo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.30 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KVC Westerlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Charleroi: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for KVC Westerlo, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 4–3 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 57% versus KVC Westerlo 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | KVC Westerlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.59 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.882 / defence 1.012 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.278 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.114. KVC Westerlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. KVC Westerlo have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Charleroi games / 43 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | KVC Westerlo 34%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | KVC Westerlo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | KVC Westerlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | KVC Westerlo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.59 / KVC Westerlo 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.882 / def 1.012 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.278 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.44
KVC Westerlo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi 2 - 0 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 5W | Draws 1 | KVC Westerlo 0W.
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.88) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.79
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.03
1.44
KVC Westerlo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.44 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 21W 13D 19L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 21L across 53 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.43 PPG, KVC Westerlo on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.66 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 17W 15D 21L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Charleroi's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.80 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 52%, KVC Westerlo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charleroi) and 56% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; KVC Westerlo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Charleroi's games and 60% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 56% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over KVC Westerlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.59 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.44 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KVC Westerlo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.28 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | KVC Westerlo 34%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, KVC Westerlo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.