🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

KV Mechelen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KV Mechelen beat Charleroi 0-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.23 xG and KV Mechelen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. KV Mechelen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against KV Mechelen attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 32%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual KV Mechelen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, KV Mechelen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.52 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KV Mechelen win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights