🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KV Mechelen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat KV Mechelen 3-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.21 xG and KV Mechelen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KV Mechelen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against KV Mechelen attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 42% | Draw 34% | KV Mechelen 24%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 42%, KV Mechelen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.26 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights