Charleroi vs Gent – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 2.40 PPG, Gent 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 3, Gent 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gent trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Gent 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.85 xG and Gent 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.359 / defence 1.124 | Gent attack 1.043 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.370. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gent's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 40 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 44% | Draw 22% | Gent 34%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Gent 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Gent 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 44% | Draw 22% | Gent 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Charleroi 1.85 / Gent 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.359 / def 1.124 | Gent attack 1.043 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Gent xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 January 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 44% chance of winning, Gent a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 2 | Gent 5W.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Gent (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.49
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.45
1.61
Gent xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.61 for Gent, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 22W 9D 19L from 50 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 15L across 50 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.50 PPG, Gent on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 8W 7D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.42 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Gent have gone 21W 14D 15L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Charleroi's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.46 PPG; Gent away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 62%, Gent 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charleroi) and 54% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Charleroi's games and 54% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charleroi's recent games and 54% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Gent tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gent in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.