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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Charleroi 2-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.55 xG and Gent 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Gent attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 24% | Gent 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Gent 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.47 PPG, Gent 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights