Charleroi vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 19 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Charleroi's favour (2.40 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Charleroi 2W, Genk 3W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.49 xG and Genk 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.362 / defence 1.144 | Genk attack 0.833 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 40 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 64% | Draw 18% | Genk 18%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Genk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 70% | Genk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 64% | Draw 18% | Genk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 66% | xG Charleroi 2.49 / Genk 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.362 / def 1.144 | Genk attack 0.833 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Genk xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 64% chance of winning, Genk a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 5 | Genk 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.36) and Genk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.83x) against Charleroi's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
64%
1.57
18%
5.54
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.77
1.28
Genk xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
8%
12.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
2%
66.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.28 for Genk, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 22W 9D 19L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 19W 18D 13L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.50 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Genk have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Genk have gone 19W 18D 13L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; Genk away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 64%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 64% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Charleroi's matches and 64% of Genk's.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.