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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Dender 3-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.46 xG and Dender 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Dender attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | Dender 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 42%, Dender 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.42 PPG, Dender 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights