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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Dender 4-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.90 xG and Dender 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Dender attack 0.95 / defence 1.43, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 26% | Dender 17%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Dender 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights