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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Dender 5-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Dender attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Dender 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Dender's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Dender 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights