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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cercle Brugge defy the odds to beat Charleroi 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 3-4 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.03 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cercle Brugge outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 31% | Cercle Brugge 34%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cercle Brugge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.44 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights