Charleroi 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Eupen — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Charleroi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for AS Eupen, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus AS Eupen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 52% | AS Eupen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.854 / defence 1.130 | AS Eupen attack 0.627 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Charleroi games / 64 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 19%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | AS Eupen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | AS Eupen 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Charleroi 1.66 / AS Eupen 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.854 / def 1.130 | AS Eupen attack 0.627 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.83
AS Eupen xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Charleroi 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 57% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charleroi and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 5W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 1W.
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.85x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.10
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
0.83
AS Eupen xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
27.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.83 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 15D 28L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
AS Eupen's form line: 14W 11D 40L from 65 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (13W 7D 12L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 6W 4D 22L from 32 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.00 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 14W 11D 40L in their last 65 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Charleroi
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
From 8 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 62%, AS Eupen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 53% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Charleroi's recent matches and 44% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charleroi's recent games and 53% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Relegation Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 0.83 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against AS Eupen attack 0.63 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 19%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 52%, AS Eupen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.