Charleroi 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Charleroi, 2 for Antwerp and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Jan 2026, ended Charleroi 2–0 Antwerp — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Antwerp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Antwerp 44%). Note also that Antwerp surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Charleroi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.993 / defence 1.160 | Antwerp attack 0.724 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Antwerp's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.89 | Draw 3.42 | Antwerp 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 32 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Charleroi 1.08 / Antwerp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.993 / def 1.160 | Antwerp attack 0.724 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antwerp xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 32) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 35% chance of winning, Antwerp a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.99x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.72x) against Charleroi's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.42
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Antwerp xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.11 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 17D 29L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.25 PPG from 72 outings (23W 21D 28L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Charleroi against 1.25 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across their last 35 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 35 away games (9W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.24 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 26W 17D 29L in their last 72 games (1.32 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 23W 21D 28L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.54 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Charleroi and Antwerp, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 4-1 Charleroi on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 6, Antwerp have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 51%, Antwerp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Charleroi and 23% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antwerp in 31%; Antwerp in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charleroi's recent matches and 40% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 23% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Charleroi's recent matches and 71% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Antwerp attack 0.72 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Antwerp 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Antwerp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.