Charleroi vs Anderlecht – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charleroi at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Charleroi's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Anderlecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Anderlecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 3 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.
It is worth noting that Anderlecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 51% versus Anderlecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 40% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.05 xG and Anderlecht 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.117 / defence 0.860 | Anderlecht attack 0.733 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 33 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 65% | Draw 20% | Anderlecht 15%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Anderlecht 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Anderlecht lead the H2H ledger, but Charleroi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 65% | Draw 20% | Anderlecht 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Charleroi 2.05 / Anderlecht 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.117 / def 0.860 | Anderlecht attack 0.733 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 65% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 6W.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.12x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.73x) against Charleroi's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.94
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.93
0.88
Anderlecht xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
51.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.88 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 8D 17L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Charleroi against 1.35 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Anderlecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.36 PPG; Anderlecht away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, Anderlecht 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charleroi) and 46% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Charleroi's recent matches and 46% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charleroi's recent games and 46% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.