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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.13 xG and Anderlecht 1.36 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Anderlecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 30% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Anderlecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Anderlecht's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights