Charleroi 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Anderlecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Anderlecht winning.
It is worth noting that Anderlecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 57% versus Anderlecht 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | Anderlecht 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.13 xG and Anderlecht 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.903 / defence 1.125 | Anderlecht attack 1.063 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.137. Data: 41 Charleroi games / 41 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 30% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Anderlecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Anderlecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 30% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Charleroi 1.13 / Anderlecht 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.903 / def 1.125 | Anderlecht attack 1.063 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Anderlecht xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 30% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 6W.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.90x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.06x) against Charleroi's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.39
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.36
Anderlecht xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.36 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 13D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 23W 11D 17L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Charleroi against 1.57 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 10W 5D 9L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 18L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 23W 11D 17L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.75 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Anderlecht 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 29% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 42%; Anderlecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 29% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.13 xG and Anderlecht 1.36 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Anderlecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 30% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Anderlecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.