Cercle Brugge 4-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 4W 5D 1L at Jan Breydelstadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cercle Brugge are significantly better at Jan Breydelstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cercle Brugge 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cercle Brugge have won 0, Charleroi 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–5 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charleroi trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 57% versus Charleroi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 49% | Charleroi 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.63 xG and Charleroi 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.062 / defence 0.942 | Charleroi attack 0.964 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.441. Data: 47 Cercle Brugge games / 47 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 31%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 3.23. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Cercle Brugge 50% | Charleroi 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.63 / Charleroi 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.062 / def 0.942 | Charleroi attack 0.964 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Charleroi xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Cercle Brugge 4 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Cercle Brugge 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (1.06) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.12
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.94
1.31
Charleroi xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.31 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 16W 12D 19L from 47 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 20L across 47 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.28 PPG, Charleroi on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 11W 2D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 7D 20L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.35 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 52%, Charleroi 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cercle Brugge) and 74% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 26% of games; Charleroi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 52% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 74% of Charleroi's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cercle Brugge run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 4-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.63 xG and Charleroi 1.31 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 31%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 49%, Charleroi 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.28 PPG, Charleroi 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.