Antwerp 1-3 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Bosuilstadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion.
Genk have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Antwerp against 2.80 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 51% versus Genk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 53% | Genk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.77 xG and Genk 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.393 / defence 0.679 | Genk attack 1.248 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.428. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Antwerp games / 47 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 23% | Genk 26%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 3.85. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 40% | Genk 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 23% | Genk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 1.77 / Genk 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.393 / def 0.679 | Genk attack 1.248 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Genk xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Genk kick off?
Antwerp vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Antwerp 1 - 3 Genk.
Where is Antwerp vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Genk part of?
Antwerp vs Genk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 51% chance of winning, Genk a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Genk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Genk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.39) and Genk's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.25x) against Antwerp's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.28
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.99
1.21
Genk xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.21 for Genk, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp's recent record stands at 31W 7D 15L from 53 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 15L across 53 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Antwerp against 1.81 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 11W 5D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.06 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Genk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 31W 7D 15L in their last 53 games (1.89 PPG), while Genk have gone 29W 9D 15L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Genk away?
Antwerp's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.04 PPG; Genk away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Genk in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
4
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Genk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Genk 0-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 54%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Antwerp and 62% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Antwerp's games and 62% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antwerp's matches and 62% of Genk's.
Do Antwerp and Genk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Antwerp 1-3 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.77 xG and Genk 1.21 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Genk outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.39 / defence 0.68 against Genk attack 1.25 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 51% | Draw 23% | Genk 26%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 53%, Genk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.89 PPG, Genk 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.