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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beerschot VA.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Beerschot VA 1-3 at Olympisch Stadion, Semi-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.54 xG and Lommel United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 59%, Lommel United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 0.84 PPG, Lommel United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights