Beerschot VA 1-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 47%, yet in-form Lommel United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beerschot VA vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and Lommel United meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Olympisch Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lommel United arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Beerschot VA 4W, Lommel United 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Lommel United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lommel United — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 56% versus Lommel United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 59% | Lommel United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.54 xG and Lommel United 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 1.006 / defence 1.003 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Beerschot VA games / 0 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.57. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lommel United (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 60% | Lommel United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Semi-finals | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Beerschot VA 1.54 / Lommel United 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 1.006 / def 1.003 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Lommel United kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Lommel United kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Lommel United?
Beerschot VA 1 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Lommel United part of?
Beerschot VA vs Lommel United is a Semi-finals fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 47% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beerschot VA and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Lommel United?
Record (7 meetings): Beerschot VA 4W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Lommel United in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (1.01) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (0.85x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.94
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.67
1.12
Lommel United xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.12 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 6W 9D 17L from 32 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 15L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.22 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Beerschot VA are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lommel United's away record stands at 7W 1D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 6W 9D 17L in their last 32 games (0.84 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Lommel United away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.60 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lommel United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Lommel United?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 4, Lommel United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-3 Lommel United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 60%, Lommel United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Beerschot VA and 67% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 27% of games; Lommel United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beerschot VA's games and 53% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Beerschot VA's matches and 67% of Lommel United's.
Do Beerschot VA and Lommel United tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Beerschot VA 1-3 at Olympisch Stadion, Semi-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.54 xG and Lommel United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 59%, Lommel United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 0.84 PPG, Lommel United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.