Beerschot VA 3-4 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Genk travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genk — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beerschot VA are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Beerschot VA have won 1, Genk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–4 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 54% | Genk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.20 xG and Genk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.701 / defence 0.991 | Genk attack 0.994 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.158. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Beerschot VA games / 33 Genk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Genk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 30% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Beerschot VA 1.20 / Genk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.701 / def 0.991 | Genk attack 0.994 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Genk xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Genk kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Beerschot VA 3 - 4 Genk.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Genk part of?
Beerschot VA vs Genk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beerschot VA and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Genk?
Record (2 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Genk in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Genk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.53
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.34
1.14
Genk xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.14 for Genk, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 17W 6D 10L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genk's form line: 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.73 PPG, Genk on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Genk in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 10L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while Genk have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Genk away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.62 PPG; Genk away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genk in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2022, when Genk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Genk?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 44%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beerschot VA) and 56% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 62% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 56% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Genk tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Genk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Beerschot VA 3-4 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.20 xG and Genk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Genk attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 54%, Genk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.73 PPG, Genk 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.