Beerschot VA 3-4 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genk travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beerschot VA have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beerschot VA at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genk — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Genk have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beerschot VA are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Beerschot VA have won 1, Genk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Jan 2022, ended Beerschot VA 1–4 Genk — a Genk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 54% | Genk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.20 xG and Genk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.701 / defence 0.991 | Genk attack 0.994 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.158. Beerschot VA's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 3 games and Genk's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.68 | Draw 3.53 | Genk 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 30% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Beerschot VA 3 games, Genk 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.20 / Genk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.701 / def 0.991 | Genk attack 0.994 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Genk xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Genk FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs Genk kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Genk kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Beerschot VA 3 - 4 Genk.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Genk part of?
Beerschot VA vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beerschot VA and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Beerschot VA vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 3 games and Genk's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.53
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.34
1.14
Genk xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.14 for Genk, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 17W 6D 10L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.73 PPG, Genk on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 16 home games (7W 5D 4L).
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 3D 9L from their last 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
Beerschot VA (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Beerschot VA vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and Genk in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 10L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while Genk have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Genk away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.62 PPG; Genk away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genk in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2022, when Genk won Genk 4-1 Beerschot VA.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Genk?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 1, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 44%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beerschot VA) and 56% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and Genk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 62% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beerschot VA and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 56% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 62% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Beerschot VA 3-4 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.20 xG and Genk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Genk attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 54%, Genk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.73 PPG, Genk 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.