St. Truiden 3-3 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 39%, yet in-form Dender provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dender have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dender have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dender's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dender are 1.70 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dender in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Dender half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 61% and Dender 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 48% | Dender 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.57 xG and Dender 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.938 / defence 1.278 | Dender attack 0.971 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.237. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 3 Dender games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 39% | Draw 24% | Dender 37%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Dender 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dender (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 39% | Draw 24% | Dender 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG St. Truiden 1.57 / Dender 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.938 / def 1.278 | Dender attack 0.971 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dender xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Dender kick off?
St. Truiden vs Dender kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Dender?
St. Truiden 3 - 3 Dender.
Where is St. Truiden vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Dender part of?
St. Truiden vs Dender is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 39% chance of winning, Dender a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Dender in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dender (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dender's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.97x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.08
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.10
1.53
Dender xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.53 for Dender, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 10D 13L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dender sit at 1.85 PPG from 33 outings (17W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
St. Truiden's home form reads 8W 6D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dender have taken 1.94 points per game from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.85 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dender in 61%.
Defensively: Dender in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Dender in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Dender have gone 17W 10D 6L in their last 33 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.88 PPG; Dender away: 1.94 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Dender in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 1-4 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
1
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Dender have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Dender 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Dender?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for St. Truiden, 62% for Dender — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 56% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Dender in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of St. Truiden's games and 62% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 56% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Dender tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Dender in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Dender share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Dender finished level at 3-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.57 xG and Dender 1.53 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 1.28 against Dender attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 39% | Draw 24% | Dender 37%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.