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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beerschot VA and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Beerschot VA and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.41 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 59%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG, Charleroi 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights