Beerschot VA 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Antwerp at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Beerschot VA welcome Antwerp to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's home record at Olympisch Stadion: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.30 (Antwerp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beerschot VA register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Antwerp in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antwerp have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Beerschot VA.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Antwerp winning.
It is worth noting that Antwerp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 60% | Antwerp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.13 xG and Antwerp 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.838 / defence 1.279 | Antwerp attack 1.127 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.093. Data: 20 Beerschot VA games / 50 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 45%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 2.22. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | Antwerp 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Beerschot VA 1.13 / Antwerp 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.838 / def 1.279 | Antwerp attack 1.127 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Antwerp xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Antwerp kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp part of?
Beerschot VA vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 24% chance of winning, Antwerp a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beerschot VA and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
Record (3 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 3W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Antwerp in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.84) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
24%
4.11
31%
3.24
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.71
1.58
Antwerp xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.58 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 11D 20L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.46 PPG from 50 outings (21W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.36 PPG, Antwerp on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beerschot VA's home form reads 9W 9D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.60 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Antwerp away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.44 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beerschot VA and Antwerp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Antwerp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
3
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, Antwerp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 52%, Antwerp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beerschot VA) and 48% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 32% of games; Antwerp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 52% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 48% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Antwerp tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.13 xG and Antwerp 1.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Antwerp attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 45%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Antwerp 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.36 PPG, Antwerp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.