Beerschot VA 2-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Anderlecht travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beerschot VA have posted 4W 2D 4L at Olympisch Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Anderlecht have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Anderlecht's 1.70 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Beerschot VA, 2 for Anderlecht and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2021, ended 0–7 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Anderlecht 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 60% | Anderlecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.80 xG and Anderlecht 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.693 / defence 1.494 | Anderlecht attack 1.159 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.076. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Beerschot VA games / 40 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 13% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 60%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 7.69 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 30% | Anderlecht 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 13% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Beerschot VA 0.80 / Anderlecht 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.693 / def 1.494 | Anderlecht attack 1.159 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Anderlecht xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Beerschot VA 2 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht part of?
Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 13% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Beerschot VA and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
13%
7.54
26%
3.81
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.66
1.86
Anderlecht xG
7.54
13%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
2%
48.64
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.86 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 17W 7D 16L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 7L across 40 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.45 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 7W 8D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.68 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 20W 13D 7L in their last 40 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.37 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Anderlecht won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Anderlecht have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Anderlecht 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 47%, Anderlecht 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Beerschot VA) and 63% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 5% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Beerschot VA's games and 79% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Beerschot VA's matches and 63% of Anderlecht's.
Do Beerschot VA and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Anderlecht 2-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.80 xG and Anderlecht 1.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Anderlecht landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.69 / defence 1.49 against Anderlecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.72, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 13% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 60%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Beerschot VA win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Anderlecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.45 PPG, Anderlecht 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.