Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Joseph Mariën, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Gent have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Gent and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gent — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 58% and Gent 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Gent 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG and Gent 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.034 / defence 0.759 | Gent attack 1.161 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.046. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Union St. Gilloise games / 40 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Gent 5.26. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Gent 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.57 / Gent 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.034 / def 0.759 | Gent attack 1.161 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gent xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 49% chance of winning, Gent a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Record (2 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 2 | Gent 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Gent (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.16x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.19
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.49
0.92
Gent xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.92 for Gent, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 50 games, going 28W 14D 8L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (25W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.76 for Gent. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.92 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 14D 8L in their last 50 games (1.96 PPG), while Gent have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.21 PPG; Gent away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gent in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 62%, Gent 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union St. Gilloise) and 42% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 54% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 42% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gent in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Gent finished level at 0-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG and Gent 0.92 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gent landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Gent attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Gent 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.96 PPG, Gent 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.