AS Eupen 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Kortrijk travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Kehrwegstadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 0.40 PPG, Kortrijk 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Eupen, 1 for Kortrijk and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with AS Eupen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 61% versus Kortrijk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 61% | Kortrijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.73 xG and Kortrijk 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.903 / defence 1.416 | Kortrijk attack 0.651 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Data: 49 AS Eupen games / 49 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 48% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 24%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Kortrijk 4.17. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: AS Eupen 70% | Kortrijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 48% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG AS Eupen 1.73 / Kortrijk 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.903 / def 1.416 | Kortrijk attack 0.651 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kortrijk xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
AS Eupen 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk part of?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 48% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AS Eupen and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Record (5 meetings): AS Eupen 1W | Draws 3 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.52
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.19
Kortrijk xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.19 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 11W 9D 29L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 10W 10D 29L from 49 games, 0.82 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 0.86 PPG, Kortrijk on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 4W 3D 17L from 24 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.96 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 11W 9D 29L in their last 49 games (0.86 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 10D 29L in their last 49 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Kortrijk away?
AS Eupen's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.96 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Eupen's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
5
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Kortrijk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 67%, Kortrijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AS Eupen and 62% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AS Eupen's games and 54% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AS Eupen's matches and 62% of Kortrijk's.
Do AS Eupen and Kortrijk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen and Kortrijk finished level at 1-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.73 xG and Kortrijk 1.19 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.90 / defence 1.42 against Kortrijk attack 0.65 / defence 1.19, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 48% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 24%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.86 PPG, Kortrijk 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.