AS Eupen 1-3 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AS Eupen welcome Genk to Kehrwegstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Eupen have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
AS Eupen's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genk — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genk's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Genk's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, AS Eupen have won 2, Genk 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended AS Eupen 1–0 Genk — a AS Eupen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Genk trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 62% and Genk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 60% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.03 xG and Genk 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.866 / defence 1.415 | Genk attack 1.187 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.277. Genk bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling AS Eupen's projected output down. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.415 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genk's projected output up. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 50 games and Genk's last 50.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 15% | Draw 25% | Genk 61%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 6.76 | Draw 4.07 | Genk 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Genk (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 70% (last 10 home games) | Genk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 15% | Draw 25% | Genk 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG AS Eupen 1.03 / Genk 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.866 / def 1.415 | Genk attack 1.187 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Genk (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Genk xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Genk FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Genk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
AS Eupen 1 - 3 Genk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Genk part of?
AS Eupen vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 15% chance of winning, Genk a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AS Eupen and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Eupen vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 50 games and Genk's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
15%
6.76
25%
4.07
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.17
2.15
Genk xG
6.76
15%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
12%
8.55
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
2%
57.77
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for AS Eupen and 2.15 for Genk, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 10D 29L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.86 PPG from 50 outings (26W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Eupen's home form reads 6W 6D 13L across their last 25 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.72 points per game from their last 25 away games (12W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Genk in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Genk
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Genk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 11W 10D 29L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Genk have gone 26W 15D 9L in their last 50 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.96 PPG; Genk away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2022, when Genk won Genk 5-0 AS Eupen.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
1
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Genk?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2023: AS Eupen 1-3 Genk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 68%, Genk 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AS Eupen and 56% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AS Eupen's games and 60% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AS Eupen's matches and 56% of Genk's.
Do AS Eupen and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 80% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat AS Eupen 1-3 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.03 xG and Genk 2.15 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Genk outscored their 2.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.87 / defence 1.42 against Genk attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 15% | Draw 25% | Genk 61%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, Genk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.