Antwerp 0-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antwerp face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 9 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Bosuilstadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Union St. Gilloise, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Antwerp.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–5 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 51% versus Union St. Gilloise 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 53% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.31 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.109 / defence 1.075 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.217 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.113. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Antwerp games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 32% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 39%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Union St. Gilloise 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 80% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 32% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 1.31 / Union St. Gilloise 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.109 / def 1.075 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.217 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 0 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 32% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (7 meetings): Antwerp 1W | Draws 2 | Union St. Gilloise 4W.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.11x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.39
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.77
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.39
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.46 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 30W 22D 26L from 78 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 47W 20D 11L across 78 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 18W 9D 12L from 39 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 21W 12D 6L across 39 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.85 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 30W 22D 26L in their last 78 games (1.44 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 47W 20D 11L in their last 78 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.62 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 56%, Union St. Gilloise 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antwerp) and 51% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Antwerp's games and 54% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antwerp's matches and 51% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 0-4 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.31 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 32% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 39%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 53%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.