🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.11 xG and St. Truiden 2.05 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.42 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights