Antwerp vs Charleroi – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Antwerp 1-3 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.21 xG and Charleroi 0.66 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Charleroi attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 71% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 7%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 56%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights