Antwerp vs Charleroi – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.79x) against Antwerp's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
71%
1.42
22%
4.47
7%
14.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.87
0.66
Charleroi xG
1.42
71%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
14.18
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
129.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.66 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.