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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Anderlecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 1-3 at Lotto Park, Championship Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 47%, Union St. Gilloise 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights