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Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 0-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.44 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 37% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 53%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.79 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights