Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Anderlecht face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OH Leuven make the trip to Lotto Park to face Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Anderlecht at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Anderlecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Anderlecht, 1.30 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht edge it 2 wins to 0, with 7 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Anderlecht 1–1 OH Leuven — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 38% versus OH Leuven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 44% | OH Leuven 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.10 xG and OH Leuven 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.880 / defence 0.685 | OH Leuven attack 0.840 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.351. Anderlecht have a tight defence (rating 0.685), which is pulling OH Leuven's projected output down. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 56 games and OH Leuven's last 56.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 26%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.34 | Draw 3.16 | OH Leuven 3.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Anderlecht's last 10 home games and OH Leuven's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 30% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Anderlecht 1.10 / OH Leuven 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.880 / def 0.685 | OH Leuven attack 0.840 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.78
OH Leuven xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs OH Leuven kick off?
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Anderlecht 5 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Anderlecht vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs OH Leuven part of?
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 43% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Anderlecht and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Anderlecht vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.88x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.84x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 56 games and OH Leuven's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.16
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
1.88
0.78
OH Leuven xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.78 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 29W 14D 23L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 16W 25D 25L from 66 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 33 home games (16W 8D 9L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 6W 10D 17L from their last 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
Anderlecht (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 29W 14D 23L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 25D 25L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or OH Leuven away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.70 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Anderlecht
7
Draws
0
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 3, OH Leuven have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and OH Leuven?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 39%, OH Leuven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Anderlecht) and 39% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Anderlecht have failed to score in 27% of games; OH Leuven in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and OH Leuven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 46% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Anderlecht and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Anderlecht's recent games and 39% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 64% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat OH Leuven 5-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.10 xG and OH Leuven 0.78 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.69 against OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 43% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 26%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 44%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.