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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat OH Leuven 5-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.10 xG and OH Leuven 0.78 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.69 against OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 43% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 26%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 44%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights