Anderlecht vs Lommel United Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Anderlecht face Lommel United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Anderlecht welcome Lommel United to Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Anderlecht at 1.70 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 53% versus Lommel United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 53% | Lommel United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.14 xG and Lommel United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.083 / defence 0.756 | Lommel United attack 1.041 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.356. Anderlecht have a tight defence (rating 0.756), which is pulling Lommel United's projected output down. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 41 games and Lommel United's last 11.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 62% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 18%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.61 | Draw 4.98 | Lommel United 5.57. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 70% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 62% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Anderlecht 2.14 / Lommel United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.083 / def 0.756 | Lommel United attack 1.041 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Lommel United xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs Lommel United kick off?
Anderlecht vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Lotto Park.
Where is Anderlecht vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Lommel United part of?
Anderlecht vs Lommel United is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 62% chance of winning, Lommel United a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Anderlecht and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Anderlecht vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Anderlecht's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 41 games and Lommel United's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.98
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.21
1.07
Lommel United xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
47.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.07 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 19W 12D 18L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 12L across 49 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.41 PPG, Lommel United on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 13W 6D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Anderlecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lommel United's away record stands at 11W 8D 5L across their last 24 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.80 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
Anderlecht (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Anderlecht vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Lommel United away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.88 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.71 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 58%, Lommel United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Anderlecht and 62% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Anderlecht's games and 62% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Anderlecht and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Anderlecht's matches and 62% of Lommel United's.
Do Anderlecht and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 71% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.