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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Anderlecht 1-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.72 xG and Charleroi 0.72 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.73 against Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 44%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.63 PPG, Charleroi 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights