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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Anderlecht face Charleroi.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Anderlecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park.

Charleroi have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Anderlecht. A 1.10 PPG lead over Charleroi (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Anderlecht have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Charleroi managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.

The historical record gives Anderlecht a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Anderlecht — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Charleroi — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 37% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 44% | Charleroi 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.72 xG and Charleroi 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.138 / defence 0.730 | Charleroi attack 0.854 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.158. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Anderlecht games / 49 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Anderlecht 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 50% | Charleroi 60%.

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