Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Anderlecht face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park.
Charleroi have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Anderlecht. A 1.10 PPG lead over Charleroi (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Anderlecht have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Charleroi managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
The historical record gives Anderlecht a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 37% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 44% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.72 xG and Charleroi 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.138 / defence 0.730 | Charleroi attack 0.854 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.158. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Anderlecht games / 49 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 50% | Charleroi 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Anderlecht 1.72 / Charleroi 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.138 / def 0.730 | Charleroi attack 0.854 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Charleroi xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Anderlecht 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 61% chance of winning, Charleroi a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): Anderlecht 6W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.14x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.85x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.24
15%
6.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.44
0.72
Charleroi xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
6.56
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
36.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.72 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 28W 12D 19L from 59 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 21L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.39 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 16W 6D 8L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.32 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 28W 12D 19L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.80 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Charleroi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 40%, Charleroi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Anderlecht) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 57% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Anderlecht's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Anderlecht 1-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.72 xG and Charleroi 0.72 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.73 against Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 44%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.63 PPG, Charleroi 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.